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Canadian oil production expected to rise: industry association predicts

An oil sands facility is reflected in a tailings pond near Fort McMurray, Alta., on July 10, 2012. The Canadian Energy Research Institute says Canada's oilsands production could grow to the point that its greenhouse gas emissions exceed the Alberta government's regulated cap of 100 million tonnes per year by 2030. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jeff McIntosh

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers is predicting the country’s oil production will increase by 1.4 million barrels per day by 2035, despite an ongoing “competitiveness gap” that discourages investment.

The group, which represents Canada’s upstream oil and gas sector, says total Canadian oil production will increase to 5.6 million bpd in the next 17 years mainly due to a rise in oilsands production to 4.2 million bpd from 2.65 million bpd in 2017.

It says Western Canada’s non-oilsands crude production will be flat at about 1.3 million bpd in 2035.

Output in Eastern Canada is expected to rise to 290,000 bpd by 2025 from major offshore projects including Hebron, Hibernia, Terra Nova, and White Rose, CAPP says, adding production will then drop to just 70,000 bpd by 2035 as oil is pumped out.

CAPP says Canada’s oil output exceeded its transport capacity in 2017 as proposed pipelines including TransCanada’s Keystone XL project, the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline (despite being sold to the federal government) and Enbridge’s Line 3 pipeline replacement face uncertainty.

It says capital spending in the U.S. rose 38 per cent to $120 billion in 2017 while investment in Canada fell to $45 billion.