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COS shares could drop below $6 if takeover bid refused: Suncor advisor

After Canadian Oil Sands Limited posted its filings to the Alberta Securities Commission ahead of today’s planned meeting, Suncor is doing the same.

Suncor is trying to get the Securities Commission to strike down COS’ 120-day shareholder rights plan or poison pill defence enacted by the COS Board in a bid to buy itself more time to find new bidders.

In its filings Canadian Oil Sands Limited Financial Advisor Jamie Anderson said the 60 day tender didn’t give its shareholders enough time to properly review and absorb the $4.3 billion Suncor takeover offer.

Suncor says that wouldn’t be the case if there was legitimate interest in Canadian Oil Sands Limited from potential bidders although COS says it’s found 25 interested parties.

“Based on my review of the Anderson Affidavit, there appears to be minimal interest in COS,” said David Harrison, Managing Director, Head of Natural Resource Investment Banking Canada for J.P. Morgan Securities Inc. “In the six weeks since the Suncor Offer was announced, the COS Board has managed to identify only four parties who are interested in accessing COS’ non-public information.”

Harrison continues to note that any truly interested party would have signed a confidentiality agreement and scheduled presentations with COS management and any well placed parties would have known that Canadian Oil Sands Limited could have come into play in February.

He’s also warning COS shareholders about a possible plunge in share prices if they let Suncor’s offer expire on Dec. 4

“Prior to the announcement of the Suncor Offer on October 5, 2012, COS Shares were trading in the range of $6 per share. The implied acquisition price of the Suncor Offer as of November 23, 2015 is approximately $9.17 per COS Share,” said Harrison.

Since the offer COS Shares have jumped to the $9 mark.

“If the Suncor Offer is withdrawn, I believe that the trading price of COS Shares could decline to levels below $6 per share, since WTI oil processes have declined in the range of 10 per cent between October 2, 2015 and November 23, 2015.”

Canadian Oil Sands Limited has repeatedly called the offer undervalued, exploitative and opportunistic.