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Frustrated doctor says it was easy to predict the fourth wave of COVID-19

Last Updated Sep 15, 2021 at 10:47 pm MST

CALGARY — Alberta Health only catches a fraction of COVID-19 cases.

That coming from Alberta’s Chief Medical Officer of Health, Dr. Deena Hinshaw on Monday — and as cases continue to rise — it may have some wondering how many daily cases we actually have.

One doctor is saying countries around the world actually don’t have an accurate representation of their daily COVID-19 case numbers — but here in Alberta the misleading comments to the public has some doctors saying, ‘I told you so.’

“It’s really simple. It’s just two elements that you need to know. That the certain variant is present and how much more transmissible it is than the variant you already had as a dominant one,” said Dr. Gosia Gasperowicz. “So, already with just those two parameters, it was possible to predict the general direction of what is going to happen in the fall. And with every day, every week going on, it was more and more clear that those predictions were correct.”

Gasperowicz is among many doctors in the province who have shared their data online.


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She began modelling the Delta variant in May, and she says her models predicted exactly what occurred.

“Well, I know that they don’t look at it on purpose. Like how much they can ignore it and especially that it was ignored before the third wave.

“I was raising alarms, raising alarms. Both people from Alberta Health, scientific advisory groups, their job is to monitor these things and see what is published. To evaluate it, to read it and understand it,” Gasperowicz said.

She knows that Premier Jason Kenney has seen her modelling online as he’s mentioned it in a press conference.

She says it’s heartbreaking to put out research that is getting dismissed from officials.